Collector Car Market – The Beginning of The End?

[beh911]

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

This is a negative post.

This topic comes up every other day.

The same hand wringers comment, the "true enthusiasts" insist value isn't important, and then two days later someone starts another value thread

[91133]

The 3 biggest differences I see in the market then (89-90) and now as I see them are:

1. Cars are being bought with cash rather than on the back of leveraged paper and we aren't now recovering from a 'recent' market meltdown.
2. Asia is in the market now and if we look at what's happened in the markets they have entered... En primeur Bordeaux wine prices as an example.
3. The market is now far more international rather than being segmented by borders - Muscle cars only flew to stratospheric levels in the US, Jaguars were driven by England's demand etc in the 1980's. The market then seemed to be far more about personal nostalgia and now seems to be far more critically assessing intrinsic aspects of particular marques and models.

[DOUGS73E]

More gasoline on the fire from Hagerty:
------------------------------
August 5, 2014
2014 Q2 COLLECTOR CAR MARKET RECAP: IS THE CLASSIC CAR MARKET SLOWING?
By: Brian Rabold
Although spring and summer’s warm weather typically inspires more drives and events for collector car enthusiasts, it doesn’t necessarily translate into more activity at auction. Despite a handful of massive sales held from April through June (Auctions America’s Spring Auburn and Mecum Indy, for example), the second quarter is often a deep breath taken between Scottsdale’s January mayhem and Monterey’s August charge. In essence, at this point in the year everyone is simply more concerned with driving what they’ve purchased than purchasing something to be driven.

That said, Q2 auction totals have increased each year since 2009, ranging from 9% to 23%. Not so for 2014, however. While the first quarter’s Scottsdale auctions saw healthy growth and the Monterey auctions are shaping up to be earth-shattering, year-over-year growth during the second quarter of 2014 was essentially unchanged in terms of gross dollar volume ($172M in preliminary totals vs. $176M in 2013).

Part of this is due to fewer auctions being held this year versus last (notably Auctions America’s Spring Carlisle sale), with the net effect being that slightly fewer cars were offered and sold than in 2013 during Q2, though the average sale price rose by 2% to offset those changes.

Comparing the first six months of 2014 with the same timeframe in 2013, dollar totals are only slightly ahead, but that still equates to a doubling compared to 2009. Compared to the same point in 2009 the average price paid per car is up by nearly 20%, though the median value is down a similar amount, indicating that most of the growth is being driven by the top of the market. Nowhere will this be more evident than in Monterey this year, where the top 5 cars sold during the week have the potential to eclipse the amount paid for all 882 cars sold in Monterey in 2011 ($200M).

So the question remains: is the market slowing, or is it continuing to thrive? Activity through June suggests the former, as the 2.5% year-over-year growth would be the lowest since 2009 if it held for the year. A slew of impending record-breaking sales, however, will be a powerful counterpoint. As is often the case, the truth is likely somewhere in between and will vary depending on your perspective. For every observer who will see strong Monterey totals as a sign of health in the market, another may see it as owners cashing in at the market’s height. Looking back at year-to-date performance, at least, there are signs that enthusiasm is waning. In August, though, that may be a difficult thought to remember.

Top 5 Q2 North American Auction Sales

1964 Ford GT40 Prototype Coupe sold for $7,560,000 (Mecum, Houston, April 14)
1971 Plymouth Cuda 426/425 Convertible sold for $3,780,000 (Mecum, Seattle, June 14)
1975 Lamborghini Countach LP400 Coupe sold for $1,210,000 (Bonhams, Greenwich, June 1)
2015 Chevrolet Corvette Z06 Coupe sold for $1,000,000* (Barrett-Jackson, West Palm Beach, April 11)
1963 Shelby Cobra 289 R&P Roadster sold for $955,800 (Mecum, Indianapolis, May 13)
*proceeds benefit charity
Top 5 Q2 North American Auctions

Mecum, Indianapolis (May 13): $35.9M (-25%)
Mecum, Houston (April 14): $32.0M (+29%)
Barrett-Jackson, West Palm Beach (April 11): $24.9 (+40%)
Auctions America, Auburn (May 8): $18.9M (+239%)
Mecum, Seattle (June 14): $14.8M (new)

[mfitton]

Doug I get the impression that you are in the market to purchase and this is your way of shaking the bushes!! Have you gotten any leads you can share with us?

[Jm993rs]

Interessant article !!

[DOUGS73E]

Doug I get the impression that you are in the market to purchase and this is your way of shaking the bushes!! Have you gotten any leads you can share with us?

Mike,
I'm not in the market, just a happy early 911 owner for the past 27 years. It’s fascinating to see how the early 911 market has changed; from a backwater hobby/interest group to 'featured' cars at high-end auctions and classic car brokerages. Last week I went to an area 'hot summer nights' car show with the local SD-PCA club. A very pleasant show, but a small Porsche turn out; my 911 was the oldest Porsche there (no 356s showed up). Attendance was high, a lot of folks ogling over my car, full of phrase. Years ago, my car would have been the outcast, with people ogling the latest water pumpers.

[Greg D.]

If the question is indeed "is the market slowing", that's not the same as "is it a bubble". Actually I kinda hope it's slowing down. If it continued "at the same rate" for another 3 years, we'd be priced out of the cars, and it would lead to a collapse for sure. But slowing down? Slowing down seems good to me, a soft landing at a new plateau... Most cars have doubled in value in the last 5 years or so. Probably justifiably, even though in some cases it annoys me (can't afford a 356 now...unless I sell a long hood ;-) Most of those pros are talking about Maseratis and 50s ferraris, our "lowly" 911s (non RS, etc..) are catalog filler that caught up to the market.

[friggens]

Slowing down seems good to me, a soft landing at a new plateau...

Amen to that. Best I would ever hope for...

cheers!

[John Straub]

Only a few more days at Monterey and we'll see.

John

[bob lee]

Ok the end is here!! It must be so, because it's in wirtting right here on the Fourm!!
So it's time for those who have been waiting to sell this is it!! So list what you have for those of us who want to buy.

Cheers,
Bob Lee
San Clemente, Ca.