Everything Must Go!

[jaudette3]

Frank (yeah, that guy) referred to this a while back, but it is accelerating. The Classifieds here, and particularly at PP, have become an all out garage sale. Folks appear to be pulling stuff from the darkest corners of their garages and listing it for bargain prices. Seems to be a bit of a over reaction to the value of the cars softening. It looks like the pendulum swung too far one way and it’s starting its swing the other way.

Here’s a little graph that served me well during my years as a stock broker and analyst:



The cycle seems to have become compressed time wise in our modern era. It will be interesting to see where the vintage Porsche market goes from here (and the stock market and the real estate market).

No predictions! Drive ‘em and enjoy ‘em.

Cheers,
JohnA

[Spyerx]

Drive ‘em and enjoy ‘em.

Truer words not spoken. Invest in businesses, property, and markets. Drive cars.

[rower]

Truer words not spoken. Invest in businesses, property, and markets. Drive cars.

Studies indicate happiness comes from “investing” in experiences which would include driving cars.
We acclimate too quickly to luxury items or new purchase.

Having said that, the chart is about the irrational movement of stock market prices. The same does occur with collectible cars but there is reason to consider them solid investment collectibles subject to the same factors as other collectibles including change of fashion, lack of liquidity, negative carry cost, etc. the best always tends to be liquid.

Some cars are too expensive not to be viewed at least as a store of value if not hopefully an appreciating asset.

Fortunately driving and collecting aren’t mutually exclusive!

[Spyerx]

Yes, I should clarify my point, because I'm a very firm believer in investing in these experiences. I just don't expect an ROI outside of mental happiness :-)

of course, there is a minority of these cars that are investment "vehicles" in the true asset category sense... I suspect most here aren't in that category.

The point is, DRIVE THEM!

[jaudette3]

I think the chart has broad application beyond the stock market: it describes human emotions broadly. And since we're emotional animals, it's very instructive.

JohnA

[rower]

I think the chart has broad application beyond the stock market: it describes human emotions broadly. And since we're emotional animals, it's very instructive.

JohnA

Yes I agree for any investment. The issue though is to figure out where on the curve we are. And it won’t be as smooth as this seems as there will be false peaks and bottoms as well. Further is the chart generally trending up as in the historic stock market over the long term.

Market timers are few and far between at least for more than one cycle.

Being in cash has a negative yield after inflation so one runs the risk of slowly deflating their assets by staying out of the market versus having the market decline on them. Tough calls and we don’t know anyone that is able to truly make those over the long run. Even Buffet has failed in the last few decades.

[jaudette3]

And although I posted this chart I think the folks who enjoy cars the most, and a lot of other things for that matter, are people like Chuck Miller. He has owned the same 911 for many years and has used it in just every way possible, in the meanwhile probably pretty much ignoring what it might be worth at any given time. The value to an owner like him is measured in something other than dollars. I don't envy very often but I really envy an enthusiast at that level. Of any activity.

DRIVE THEM!

JohnA

[Chuck Miller]

Thanks for the nod John…

I’ve often said if you’re caught up in what some call ‘the golden years of motor sport’, from the late ‘60’s to mid ‘70’s, when cars didn’t get any faster, and just before ‘they’ started making the cars and tracks slower… If you’re caught in that era, (geezer or no) and you want a performance car that reflects that period. That’s FAST/reliable/and bulletproof … Something that when driven ‘properly’ can still go toe to toe with almost anything in the hills, starts EVERY time, and you have no reluctance to drive across the country… briskly…
What other car even comes close to a dialed in, buttoned up, period 911?

30 years ago I barely scrapped up the $10k to buy my old blue car…
Realizing today that wouldn’t buy the sport seats that came with it, does that inhibit me from trying to get the most out of it ?

Well, I will say I never wheel to wheel raced it… my trust goes only so far….

I’m just a time trial hack and back road driver that squeezes just enough (and maybe a little more) out of a GREAT old car to keep me honest and smiling…

As far as the ‘sell off’ of period parts… All I can say is THANK YOU to Peter Kane for keeping that part of our board on point and in line…

- 7 days ago at the ‘Day Away From Work’ event at the ‘Streets of Willow’

Keep drive'n'm !!!

cm

[Unobtanium-inc]

On my last buying trip I noticed people being much more excited about seeing stuff leave. One guy who I always stop off and see but who normally won't sell me much was loading me up, I think about 40 wheels, and three engines. I was running out of room!

---Adam

[Arne]

I've noticed this too. But in my case, it's all good. I'm still hunting parts for my car, so if people are willing to sell I'm happy.

As for cars as investments, over the many years I've played with cars, I typically lose at least $1k per year of ownership. I figure that's cheap fun. So far the only car I've really made money on was the '84 Carrera I sold to finance buying the '72T I'm working on now. I got lucky and bought the '84 at the bottom of the curve, and sold it not too much past the peak. Couldn't have afforded the '72 otherwise.

Of course, when the '72 is finished I expect to be underwater in it. But I don't care as it is for me to drive, not to try to resell.