Market & Turbo Lag

[jaudette3]

The current market for our cars reminds me of turbo lag in the 930's. While still not something to bet the farm on, there are a number of pretty dependable signs that the economy is turning up. Meanwhile, it appears that the market for early Porsches is at best level and perhaps still going down. It might be wishful thinking that there will be a boost of turbo dimensions, but my sense is that things will improve. Here are three reasons why I think this will happen:

(1) Seasonality - New Driving Season
Even in years when the market was hot I noticed that there is a fair amount of seasonality to it. Those of us not fortunate enough to live in warm climates have mostly put the cars away and looking forward to next driving season. Meanwhile our thoughts turn other things, especially during the holidays. There is usually a burst of car activity when Spring rolls around.

(2) Weak Dollar
It looks inevitable that the dollar will continue to weaken against the Euro and the Pound. We already see a lot of cars going back to Germany and that should accelerate if the trend continues.

(3) Economic Upturn
As mentioned, things appear to be improving at a macro level, but for the most part it's not being felt on the ground, where most of us live. Unemployment is still high (by nature a lagging indicator), housing prices have yet to stabilize, and there's a lot to be resolved in the commercial real estate market. But if things begin to improve on the ground it will build confidence which should help the market.

I'm not sure it will be at a turbo level, but I wouldn't be surprised to see things improve in the Spring. I hope so - I'd like to rearrange things a bit in the barn.

Cheers,
JohnA

[RSTarga]

Just wait till that wall st bonus money hits.