Spoke with 2 very well known and respected fellas in the ultra high end car business. (One was a widely read Ferrari expert)
My questions to them:
1) Bubble?
2) Who are they buyers and how are these buyers different vs previous run ups?
Neither thought the market is a bubble but both thought prices were full retail at Monterey. They also told me that globally the demand for the best higher end cars is unprecedented. The number of millionaires and billionaires is like never before. The dealer who brokers mostly Ferraris told me about the buyers he knew would be bidding on the cars this weekend...all well known Billionaires. The name Leslie Wexner was mentioned several times. He is an interesting collector. Mid 70s and he is just starting his Ferrari collecting. In the last 5 years he has collected 60. A 25M Ferrari is nothing for a Billionaire. Its a days worth of interest.
Porsches. Certain cars are going to continue to be in high demand. The Germans I met were all in search of cars to complete 'collections'. There were 904s, 4 Cam 356s etc all selling for millions. This trend will continue. We have a 67s and were focused on that market for obvious reasons. Ran into several buyers who were there just to buy 67Ses. 2 dealers told me that the price if a tier 1 67s is $225-250k and they expect the values to be closer to $300k by next year or sooner. (If you need their contact PM me)
The previous run ups were not like this one. Everyone brings up the late 80s Ferrari bubble after Enzo passed. What is different now vs then? Everything. No need to reinforce this point. Anyone old enough will completely understand.
Muscle car bubble? Not a global market. Europeans don't drive American Muscle. The other major factor at play for the muscle car bubble that isn't now...borrowed money from HELCOs. Once the HELOC money went away so did that market.
What would cause this market to reverse? Housing popped when there was a spike in sub prime mortgage defaults in late 07. There are no early indicators for collector cars. Having been to Monterey every year for nearly a decade its my opinion that the market is not a bubble and will continue to increase. Certain cars will level off and maybe even slightly reverse. Overall, the market conditions are like never before.