Patch of Rough Road

[911MRP]

I don't have a natural understanding of this stuff but from what I've read when "influenza" was a pandemic around 1918 ( beyond the regular quite high rate of annual deaths) it was devastating ...who knows the potential of today's novel virus that World Health Organization says is now a pandemic and seemingly has a higher mortality rate than influenza. Not having a natural understanding maybe it is an over reaction all around the world but the clue is in the name WHO... maybe WHO does know more than me so are worth listening to. Arguably better safe than sorry since global pandemics have happened in the past for example La Grippe referred to above was responsible for up to 100 million deaths back then, according to some sources. Or was that fake news?

From around a century ago ....

A letter from a physician at one U.S. Army camp to a colleague puts a more human face on those numbers:

"These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of LaGrippe or Influenza, and when brought to the Hosp. they very rapidly develop the most vicious type of Pneumonia that has ever been seen … and a few hours later you can begin to see the Cyanosis extending from their ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the colored men from the white. It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes…. It is horrible. One can stand it to see one, two or twenty men die, but to see these poor devils dropping like flies…. We have been averaging about 100 deaths per day…. Pneumonia means in about all cases death…. We have lost an outrageous number of Nurses and Drs. It takes special trains to carry away the dead. For several days there were no coffins and the bodies piled up something fierce…. It beats any sight they ever had in France after a battle. An extra long barracks has been vacated for the use of the Morgue, and it would make any man sit up and take notice to walk down the long lines of dead soldiers all dressed and laid out in double rows…. Good By old Pal, God be with you till we meet again "

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/
"It beats any sight they ever had in France after a battle". ...that's quite a statement from an army doctor of 1918. Doubt Someone having witnessed the atrocities he must have done in WW1 would lie or resort to hyperbole!

John's stepfather's health situation doesn't sound like fake news to me ...doubt physicians and nursing staff wear hazmat without good reason. I hope he pulls through.

As to finance ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-business-live

Steve

[62S-R-S]

A large stampede is expected today...


fisher.jpg

[mfitton]

That may be so, but I don't ever remember hearing of someone with the flu walking into a nursing home and killing 20 residents.

Oh, believe me it's been done, just not reported.

[jaudette3]

Hopefully this is capitulation.

[Vintage Racer]

I was one of the guys that bought stocks today.

Is my timing good? It's probably not, but I have a plan to buy into every panic market. It will work well or not, but I have done my research.

[rower]

Plenty of time to think about it as “shelter in place” order at midnight today for me and 7mm others. I thought about heading to a second house, but all the essentials are here. Will miss the walks and bike rides though...Peloton will get more use.

[jaudette3]

It all depends on your timing. If it's for retirement in 20-30 years you can't go wrong. If you are wrong the world has ended so who gives a damn.

If it's for a profit opportunity in a year or two or less, who knows. Just one more reason it would be nice to be young with the wisdom of age.

In my life, when I did this for a living, I had no sense of short-term market timing so I preached long-term capital growth. I could recognize individual opportunities at times from a purely financial analysis point of view. Occasionally a company would be so under valued that all you had to do was substitute patience for risk. Worked great in the crappy 70's. Nice edge while it lasted but market sophistication has sniffed out most inefficiencies.

I was always scared to death of losing my clients' money. I knew they had money under management with me in order to take on risk and out-perform CD's but I was *cautious*. I was also a private pilot at that time and the cliche that resonated with me was "old, bold pilots".

I have no idea how anyone gets an edge these days. Algorithms only go so far. My sense is that there's a fair amount of inside information being traded on.

[bob joyce]

it may be your 100 vix is on its way... 1987 was 150 and there was not a killer boogie man behind the door

[jaudette3]

Scary market today. With all the Fed stimulus pumps going full speed 7x24 (there’s definitely going to be an ink shortage) the market could only manage a semi-respectable dead cat bounce. The shorts appear to be calling the Fed’s put this time.

I’ve long had the impression that our dirty little secret is the perceived threat of deflation. The Fed is always ready to turn on the stimulus pumps. Problems is, they are running out of bullets (sorry about the mixed metaphor). I fear that there’s a real chance that this pandemic has a very real chance of being a catalyst for long-term worldwide deflation (I dunno, 20-30% chance maybe?). They can send me a $1,000 check every month and I ain’t spending it, I’m just going to save it and watch it’s buying power increase.

Going to make debt servicing a little rough as those dollars get more expensive though.

FWIW,
John

[bob joyce]

Corona virus a kind of bird flu, (looks like it could be bat) = black swan event !? POOF.... every thing goes kookoo