Longhood Market Declining? Just wondering....

[jaudette3]

I've never obsessed over the value of our cars. But after spending 20 years working as a stockbroker I have an ingrained interest in macro-economics. And with Audette Collection I have a dog in the hunt with longhood parts and restorations.

It looks like there may be some symptoms of a weakening market. Here are some of the things that I have noticed:

Micro

• Exceptional cars seem to be holding strongly while lesser cars seem to be softening in price.
• There are scads of small parts for sale, many more than normal it seems, as if folks are cleaning out their closets and drawers. Perhaps thinking about a future sale of their car?
• Many individual parts have had large decreases in their asking prices, especially esoteria.
• Current owners are getting a bit older. The somewhat younger folks seem to often prefer G-Series cars and 964's. And the much younger folks seem to like the glam.
• The euphoria over longhoods seen at the top simply could not last.

I know we've all seen this chart way too many times, but it's just damn spot-on. I think things are around Unease for those who care about the value of their cars(s).

Macro

• Everybody and their Cousin Bubba is predicting a severe recession later this year, which of course would impact all asset prices.
• Interest rates have gone up making interest bearing assets more competitive with non-cash flow investments such as cars.
• There's a growing interest in the fuching electric cars.

I'm very interested in your observations and thoughts. Maybe it's a good time for me to retire (for the fourth time).

Cheers,
John

P.S. I hate the monetization of *everything* in our culture but unfortunately I have to pay attention to this one because of my business. There are decisions to made about what level of inventory to maintain, setting prices, determining trade-in value, etc. The Porsche longhood community has a lot of collective knowledge when it comes to business (a lot of winners here) and, as I said, I highly value your input.

[moito]

I've never obsessed over the value of our cars. But after spending 20 years working as a stockbroker I have an ingrained interest in macro-economics. And with Audette Collection I have a dog in the hunt with longhood parts and restorations.

It looks like there may be some symptoms of a weakening market. Here are some of the things that I have noticed:

Micro

• Exceptional cars seem to be holding strongly while lesser cars seem to be softening in price.
• There are scads of small parts for sale, many more than normal it seems, as if folks are cleaning out their closets and drawers. Perhaps thinking about a future sale of their car?
• Many individual parts have had large decreases in their asking prices, especially esoteria.
• Current owners are getting a bit older. The somewhat younger folks seem to often prefer G-Series cars and 964's. And the much younger folks seem to like the glam.
• The euphoria over longhoods seen at the top simply could not last.

I know we've all seen this chart way too many times, but it's just damn spot-on. I think things are around Unease for those who care about the value of their cars(s).

Macro

• Everybody and their Cousin Bubba is predicting a severe recession later this year, which of course would impact all asset prices.
• Interest rates have gone up making interest bearing assets more competitive with non-cash flow investments such as cars.
• There's a growing interest in the fuching electric cars.

I'm very interested in your observations and thoughts. Maybe it's a good time for me to retire (for the fourth time).

Cheers,
John

P.S. I hate the monetization of *everything* in our culture but unfortunately I have to pay attention to this one because of my business. There are decisions to made about what level of inventory to maintain, setting prices, determining trade-in value, etc. The Porsche longhood community has a lot of collective knowledge when it comes to business (a lot of winners here) and, as I said, I highly value your input.

i think this diagram does not have the right proportions panic comes way earlier

[Scott A]

My friend a decade ago restored his 240z. In the end, he calculated he paid himself pennies per hour.

I have never felt that way about the Porsche cars. So I haven’t hit unease or despair.
But my cars have nothing to do with money for me, they are 100% nostalgia.

In the world market of expensive somewhat unnecessary product, the way to adopt customers, is based on hype.
Stuff has to be marketed, hyped, luft does a good job at this.

Electric cars are hype too.
The evidence goes both ways, if they are good or bad, but the hype will be what causes their success.

The old cars do not get the volume of marketing compared to EVs.

[Longballa]

It's even more expensive to restore these cars today and even finding a skilled guy to do it is even harder than it used to be. Paint and body shops make a lot more doing insurance work than restoring old Porsche's. I believe cars that are in need restoration will soften but already restored cars or survivors that are truly rust free will not go down in price based on the fact it's so expensive to restore these days. It would be great if prices fell on parts but I don't see Porsche or any parts distributors lowering their prices ever. I don't see anything slowing down on my end. It's the opposite.

[jaudette3]

Scott, given the incredible quality of your work you will never see a slow down. You should be prepared to be booked for life.

What I have seen from my vantage point lately is a slow down in parts sales, reproduction parts especially, but a big increase in restoration projects, particularly from outside the U.S. Which is great by me as the restoration work is what I enjoy the most.

[John Straub]

Good "Hot Rods" are still bringing large money...

John

[targatuesday]

I for one would be thrilled if the air cooled 911 market cooled off and the influencers and media focused on other marques. Then I could buy more air cooled Porsches

An observation about hype. Singer is focusing on the Turbo Study which is an homage to G-Body Turbo cars. Magnus Walker is just as likely to show up at an event in a water cooled 911 or non-Porsche these days. Many of the same podcasts and YouTube channels which once generated buzz around air cooled cars are creating content debating if the 911 is overrated and if other options offer better value or a more unique experience. If the audience is bored the media machine will search out new subjects to win back their attention.

[uptheorg]

There has been a cooling of the hot wristwatch market over the past few months: considering the demographic of who is buying these luxury goods, I would assume that the vintage car market would follow suit, since these are essentially toys for grown men and they have little utility. The smart money is staying with the mechanical wristwatches and I believe that is because they are nearing their low and will eventually rise in value, although it may take a lot of time. Probably the same with the cars: they aren't making any more of 'em.

One of the things I always liked about this forum in particular is that the enthusiasm has always been for the cars and driving them with scant attention paid to their values.

[Markos]

I think the entire classic car market is cooling, but a few of the hot cars are taking a bit. Let’s be honest, we all watched subpar vehicles sell for too much money in 2021/2022. Now we see these dipping back into realistic prices while the deserving vehicles maintain *most of the peak value.

[Unobtanium-inc]

If you're watching the market over the last few months, it always drops or stagnates in the winter. That's why we only sell cars from March-Thanksgiving, nothing happens in the winter. If you sell a car in the winter you are probably selling it for wholesale to another seller who will hold it until Spring.
The greater market is holding steady with really good cars bringing ever better money. The problems we are seeing now are it's almost impossible to continue the rapid increases in price we saw in 2015-1016, so what some might see as a softening is actually a natural leveling off. We may not see another frenzy like the last one again for a long time, but I wouldn't hold out for $25,000 911 drivers anytime soon.
Parts are seeing a softening but that is because there are probably less cars under restoration now, then 5-10 years ago. A combination of high restoration costs, lack of restoration shops, and some of the high quality reproduction parts have all caused a slowdown in parts sales, used original parts.

---Adam