Empirical Pricing Matrix

[jaudette3]

While it might be impossible to reduce pricing of early 911's to a purely empirical level given all the variables, it's fun to reduce the variables to two and give it a try. Suppose we use the following scales to judge the two variables of condition and collectibility (we could probably substitute "originality" as with a given marque and model that's what determines relative collectibility):

o Condition: 1 through 5 with 1 the highest
o Collectibility: A through F with A the highest

We can then build a matrix and insert values, ideally from recent sales, less ideally from "feel". It would look something like this:



For example, the top value of $125,000 is assigned to a A-1 rated car: top rated for collectibility and top rated for condition. A middling car, say at C-3 is valued at $35,000. These values are just relative at this point as I haven't done much research on recent comparable sales and am going mostly by personal feel. But it should be possible over time to assign real world values by monitoring real world sales.

You can build a chart from the data that looks like this:



It might be possible to build a comparable spreadsheet for each year and model. And also to make it interactive so that members could use to plug in their own values. Here's an example of one that I built for my company - The Internet Marketing Cube. If there is any interest I would be glad to build one for early Porsches.

Just diddling around on a cold and snowy holiday weekend in Central Oregon.

Cheers,
JohnA

[Eminence Gris]

Nice, John.

I have no doubt that 'A' level '73 Ss have gone for more than $125K. I saw one 5 years ago (coupe, tangerine, 40K miles) that could not be bought for $130K (offered and refused).

I am of the belief that we will see these cars reach and surpass $200K in the next 2-3 years. However, most will be 'quiet' sales, leaving only anecdotal evidence. That is going to make an empirical report a challenge.

My observation is that a crumpled-up '73 S coupe shell (lower than F-5 on your scale) with title and VIN intact is at least a $5K value today.

[denson]

I agree and am hoping this will help us all offset the diminished real estate values we have suffered.

[X-Faktory]

John,
I like it alot. Reducing the matrix to two variables makes it an easy to use matrix, without falling into the trap of added complexity, while trying to account for every nuance. A simple "*add up to 30% for the X-factor." statement should cover the rest.

I may be somewhat biased, but I think that there will be lots of interest in the E's in the next year or two. I'd gladly help with that matrix.

Regards,

Al

[Macroni]

Reasonable and very cool. Would love to see the grid populated w/ actual 2009 sales data.

[John Z Goriup]

Had business at EASY this morning and took the obligatory walk over to Fantasy Junction to check their latest goodies.

To help in the empirical aspect of the matrix, I picked up their weekly price list which had the following two two relevant Porsche entries (descriptions verbatim from the Fantasy Junction list ) :

1. 1970 911S. Totally original Irish Green paint and mint black interior. 75K miles. Manual pack, tools, driving lights.......$ 99,500 ( See first photo, taken today )

2. 1973 911 RS M471 Lightweight, s/n 1079. White / Blue script. Matching #s. Unmolested, sympathetically maintained......$ 349,500 ( Second shot, also from earlier today ).

Uncharacteristically, I shall refrain from commenting further until there has been some discussion ( if any), but intend to continue contributing if I see anything that might fall into the category we're tracking. I know two data points neither a pattern nor a trend make, but we have some current staring points.

[John Z Goriup]

Picked up the latest issue ( Jan. '10) of Sports Car Market yesterday and found the following auction sale notice ( Bonhams, @ Chichester, UK )- verbatim, incl. Italics:

'73 911 Porsche Carrera RS Coupe. S/N 9113601316. Eng. #6630261. Red/black vinyl & velour. Odo: 32,571 km. Clean at top and bottom, pipes good, new heat exchangers, new Nylocs everywhere show motor has been apart recently. Reshelled back in the day with a T body, presumably after early accident damage. Motor is from chassis 0243, gearbox is a factory "AT" suffix exchange unit. Has FIA papers. Cond: 2. Sold at 99,267.
However good the parts and the authenticity of the sheet metal, everything here simply added up to "bitsa" in the eyes of the buyers. Bought for the price of a good 2.4S-based replica and surely with better provenance, I'd call this very well bought, especially at $30K under the bottom estimate.

[John Z Goriup]

Feb. '10 issue of Sports Car Market arrived yesterday. notice of RM Auctions in London sale of the following ( verbatim):

Lot# 263 - 1972 Porsche 911 RS Replica coupe, S/N 9112300725, Eng. # 6321147. Green / black velour. Odo. 56,109. 2.4 S well-made into a RS replica by respected specialist, but now with 2.9 and 930 brakes with extra ducting. Safety Devices cage, and RSR tank. Slight oil mist under motor, oil pipes in good shape, well scrubbed P Zeros on polisheed Fuchs. Not hit in front, but weld repair visible under battery. Cond: 3+. SOLD AT $ 68,306. Another 2.4S bites the dust. They can be replicated out of 3.0SCs, you know. Still, what's done is done, and it's perfectly good enough as a user/track day car. Deemed decently priced at under the $73k low estimate.
_________________________________________________
The auction was Oct 28, '09. Price above incl. 10% Buyer's Premium fee. $1.66 = 1 BPS. Car was Viper green with lightweight RS fiberglass front bumper, hood pins, and twin Durant mirrors. Report by Paul Hardiman.

JZG

[John Z Goriup]

Received a call from a friend yesterday about the very recent private sale of an exceptional 67 Normal 911 Coupe, completely original, matching numbers, original engine and transmission, partially freshened Irish Green single-stage paint, freshened engine,, some re-upholstering of orig. interior, steel wheels.

It is beleieved car stays in the US.

Will advise selling price as soon as I have additional factual information.

JZG

[John Z Goriup]

Received a call from a friend yesterday about the very recent private sale of an exceptional 67 Normal 911 Coupe, completely original, matching numbers, original engine and transmission, partially freshened Irish Green single-stage paint, freshened engine,, some re-upholstering of orig. interior, steel wheels.

It is believed car was sold in the US.

Will advise selling price as soon as I have additional factual information.

JZG

Car was sold in the mid-$ 50,000 range. I know this automobile well, and can tell you the buyer got a Hell of a deal at that price.....but times are what they are.

As Mike Sheehan ( Ferrari market expert ) observes: " Owners of collector cars who want to sell their cars in today's market must accept what their cars are worth, and be prepared to drop the price until it sells." ( Orig. asking price was $ 65,000).

JZG